The Dynamic Relationship Between the Dollar and Components of U.S. Trade

The dynamic response of the nominal trade account to changes in the value of the U.S. dollar has been posited to follow a J-curve pattern. Recent experience calls this into question. The aggregate nominal trade balance is decomposed here into four components, both prices and volumes of imports and exports. Time series specification tests and Granger tests of causal priority are employed to identify the existence and nature of the response of each individual component to dollar movements. Surprisingly weak and delayed responses of both import prices and volumes are found, suggesting a new view of trade-balance evolution.

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